Ukraine Census Possible 1.5 to 2 Years Post-War

Arsen Makarchuk stated that while population estimates exist, they have not been publicly shared. The last official population figure, recorded on February 1, 2022, predated the war, leading to varying estimations from state institutions, international agencies, and private researchers.

Organizations like the United Nations Population Fund, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund have all contributed to these estimates. Various methodologies have resulted in figures that can differ by as much as four million individuals, limiting precise demographic analytics until a full census occurs.

Makarchuk emphasized the need for a socio-political environment conducive to accurate counting. He noted that even after the war ends, societal adjustments such as return migration and reintegration of demobilized individuals will take approximately 1.5 to 2 years.

Only after these processes can a reliable assessment of the population be conducted. He also highlighted that once completed, Ukraine aims to participate in the 2030 European Population Census round, which will utilize advanced methodologies, such as combining data from various sources.

For instance, Estonia employs over 50 data sources, including utility consumption, waste volume, and elevator activity metrics in residential complexes, to inform their population estimates. A population census not only counts individuals but also provides insight into socio-economic conditions, demographics, and infrastructure access, which are crucial for government and municipal planning.

The statistics will guide development policies and social programs tailored to the population's needs. The State Statistics Service had initially aimed to conduct an experimental population assessment by the end of 2025, but the persistent war landscape continues to complicate these efforts.