Ukraine Must Prepare for Multiple Scenarios, Expert Says

What Happened

Oleksiy Haran, a political science professor at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy and scientific advisor at the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, discussed the need for Ukraine to explore various scenarios and solutions to its geopolitical challenges. This was reported in an interview with Ukrinform.

Haran noted that the world is undergoing transformations that undermine the international order established after World War II. These changes have been previously underestimated in their scale and impact, he asserted.

Key Details

Haran pointed to tensions between Europe and the United States and a rise in populism as critical historical parallels that countries have faced before. He mentioned that despite crises, European integration has continued, with moderate political forces maintaining dominance in the European Parliament.

However, he warned of the increasing strength of right-wing populism in Europe, stating that new political dynamics could emerge, particularly in countries like France. Furthermore, Haran outlined the evolution of the global order, moving from a bipolar system during the Cold War to the concept of the 'end of history' as proposed by Francis Fukuyama, and currently towards a multipolar world.

He emphasized the diminishing clarity of international norms, suggesting potential shifts back towards a bipolar arrangement, with the United States and China as primary power centers. Haran also addressed the implications of Donald Trump's isolationist tendencies on American foreign policy, drawing historical comparisons to the post-World War I era when the U.S.

did not join the League of Nations despite President Woodrow Wilson's advocacy.

Why It Matters

Haran's insights indicate that Ukraine's adaptive strategies are crucial in a time of shifting geopolitical landscapes. As Ukraine faces ongoing threats, the development of flexible policies could enhance its security and resilience against external aggressions.

Background

The expert highlighted that the last five years have marked a period of unprecedented resistance from Ukraine against Russian aggression. He stated that the current resilience level of Ukraine is stronger than ever, despite its complex historical challenges.

Haran called for a balanced foreign policy that avoids excessive dependence on any single ally, reinforcing the necessity for various strategic options. Ultimately, he noted that Ukraine's achievements in maintaining its stance against aggression are significant, reinforcing the country's commitment to sovereignty and self-determination.