Russia May Have Launched Two Oreshnik Missiles on May 24

What Happened

During an extensive overnight attack on May 24, Russian military forces seemingly targeted Ukraine with two Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs). According to the Institute for the Study of War, one of the missiles failed and crashed in Russian-occupied territory in the Donetsk region.

Key Details

The ISW's assessment, reported by Ukrinform, included analysis from Ukrainian OSINT researchers who scrutinized video footage from the missile attack. They identified six submunitions striking the ground, lending credibility to the missile launch report.

It was suggested that one missile may have impacted Russian military positions near occupied cities like Avdiivka or Yasynuvata, located approximately 40 kilometers from the frontline. This incident marks a concerning trend in Russian military operations.

Notably, if confirmed, it would indicate a malfunction rate of one in every four Oreshnik missiles used so far in the ongoing conflict. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s news agency, ArmyInform, estimated the financial implications of the missile strike.

The combined value of Russia's attack package from May 23 to 24 was pegged at around $361 million, incorporating costs associated with one Oreshnik missile, estimated at $50 million. If both missiles were indeed deployed, the cost would rise significantly to approximately $411 million.

Furthermore, during the night of the attacks, Ukrainian air defense forces successfully intercepted a considerable number of threats—55 missiles and 549 Russian drones were neutralized, with Kyiv being the primary target. Reports indicate that impacts were recorded in 54 locations across Ukraine from 16 missiles and 51 strike drones.

Why It Matters

The possibility of missile malfunctions suggests challenges faced by the Russian military in maintaining operational effectiveness. Additionally, the escalating costs associated with missile strikes reflect the high stakes and ongoing economic burdens in this conflict.

Background

The Oreshnik missile, introduced by Russia, is part of its arsenal of intermediate-range ballistic capabilities. Its usage in Ukraine underscores the persistent aggression from Russian forces amid evolving military strategies. As the conflict continues, the implications of both effectiveness and costs could shape future military operations for both sides.