Belarus Unlikely to Attack Ukraine Despite Militarization

What Happened

On April 24, 2026, Pavel Latushko, the Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, expressed that although Belarus is ramping up its military efforts, a unilateral attack on Ukraine by its armed forces is unlikely at present. This statement was made during comments to Ukrinform at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) in Strasbourg.

Key Details

Latushko noted significant shifts in the decision-making process regarding military engagement. The responsibility for such decisions has transitioned to the All-Belarusian People's Assembly, which consists of 1,200 appointees designated by President Alexander Lukashenko.

This change indicates an effort to formalize military mobilization and readiness. According to Latushko, the mobilization framework has been altered, allowing for digital notifications via SMS, expanding the range of individuals eligible for conscription.

As a result, Belarus's mobilization reserve currently stands at approximately 289,000 individuals, compared to a regular army size of 65,000. Latushko also mentioned plans to increase the regular army to 85,000 while factoring in an additional 150,000 troops from territorial defense units.

He emphasized that military drills in Belarus are ongoing, with training sessions continuously rotating. Recently, 4,600 new units of weaponry were allocated for the armed forces in 2024, alongside the establishment of a Southern Operational Command.

Latushko pointed out a 32% rise in defense spending over the past year, coupled with ideological conditioning of the populace, as Lukashenko frequently mentions the notion of war. While there is an apparent push for military preparation, Latushko stated that the Belarusian army currently lacks the capability for an independent offensive.

He added that Belarusian forces lack motivation and desire to engage in combat. The presence of special operations forces exists, but Latushko considers them more suitable as a secondary support force rather than frontline troops.

Amid these developments, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has noted that Russia may consider various scenarios that involve Belarusian territory but expressed hope that Minsk will not be drawn into such plans.

Why It Matters

The assessment bears significance as it reflects the current military and political climate in Belarus, indicating a strategic posture more focused on deterrence rather than direct aggression against Ukraine. Understanding these dynamics is essential for regional security analysis and responding effectively to potential threats.

Background

In the past year, relations between Belarus and Ukraine have been tense, influenced by Belarus's allegiance to Russia during ongoing regional conflicts. The Belarusian opposition’s views on military readiness and the potential for an attack offer critical insights into the internal political landscape, shaping the broader geopolitical narrative in Eastern Europe.